ISO New England Sees Electrification Driving Demand By 14% Over The Next 10 Years

by Peter Maloney
APPA News
May 25, 2022

Electrification is projected to increase annual net electricity use in ISO New England by 14 percent over the next decade, according to a report by the ISO.

The report, 2022-2031 Forecast Report of Capacity, Energy, Loads, and Transmission (CELT), looks at the long-term forecast for energy consumption and peak demand, including 10-year forecasts accounting for the impacts of energy efficiency and behind-the-meter solar generation, as well as capacity with supply obligations and total generating capability. The report also breaks down the region’s generating plants by fuel type.

The ISO develops a gross long-term forecast for electricity demand using state and regional economic forecasts, years of New England weather history, and forecasts for energy demand to power electric vehicles (EVs) and air-source heat pumps. The results of the ISO’s energy efficiency and behind-the-meter solar power forecasts are deducted from the gross forecast to arrive at a net demand forecast.

The report projects gross electric demand of 164,965 gigawatt hours (GWh) in 2031 compared with 140,536 GWh in 2022, and net demand of 140,805 in 2031. Electric vehicles are expected to account for 5,934 GWh of demand in 2031, while air-source heat pumps are expected to account for 3,056 GWh of demand that year. The ISO forecasts energy efficiency will reduce demand by 16,468 GWh in 2031 and behind-the-meter solar installations will reduce demand by 7,692 GWh by 2031.

Assuming average weather conditions, the report projects peak summer demand at 29,519 megawatts (MW) gross and 25,322 MW net in 2031, compared with 27,743 MW and 24,686 MW gross and net, respectively, in 2022.

If weather is hotter than usual, the report estimates peak summer demand of 31,336 MW gross and 27,139 MW net by 2031, compared with 29,472 MW gross and 26,416 MW net in 2022.

Under average weather condition, the ISO forecasts peak winter demand at 25,880 MW gross and 22,852 net in 2031, compared with 22,031 MW gross and 20,009 MW net in 2022.

Under average weather condition, the ISO forecasts peak winter demand at 25,880 MW gross and 22,852 net in 2031, compared with 22,031 MW gross and 20,009 MW net in 2022.

If weather is colder than average, the ISO estimates gross winter demand of 26,725 MW and net demand of 23,696 MW in 2031, compared with 22,717 MW gross and 20,695 MW net in 2022.

The demand forecast report is the primary source for assumptions used in the ISO’s system planning and reliability studies.